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Scenario analysis of the supply and demand balance of hard coal in Poland until 2040

11 lutego 2022, 09:20 /
Scenario analysis of the supply and demand balance of hard coal in Poland until 2040

The european union’s climate and energy policy, implemented since 1990, is based on three key pillars aimed at achieving climate neutrality. in particular these pillars are the (i) decarbonisation of the econ- omy, (2) development of renewable energy sources (res) and (3) increase of energy efficiency. Decarbonisation is defined as striving to reduce the use of fossil fuels (mostly coal and lignite, oil, natural gas) in the economy.

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This goal can be achieved by replacing the above fuels with energy from renewables (water, wind, sun energy) or improvements in energy efficiency. An important element of the implementation of the eu climate and energy policy is the implementation of relevant regulations, which constitute the legal framework for the member states. In this context, of key importance is the set of initiatives of the european commission called the european Green deal and the fit for 55 package of legislative changes developed as part of this strategy. Its main aim is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the previously planned level of 40% to at least 55% by 2030 (compared to 1990). According to the analyses of the european commission (ec), this change may result in the need to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy sector by about 53–76% compared to 2015.

A direct consequence of the EU’s climate and energy policy will be a reduction in the demand for solid fossil fuels in the member states over the next decades. Poland is a country where fossil fuels are still the dominant carrier of primary energy. Thus, it should be expected that EU regulations in the area of climate neutrality will have a significant impact on the use of fossil fuels, which also results in the need to properly adjust supply to domestic demand. this thesis is confirmed by the provisions of the directive of the european Parliament and the council on the promotion of energy from renewable sources, defining a 42% target share of res in the national energy mix [3] (compared to 32% adopted in the Poland’s energy Policy [4]).

The resource most affected by the implementation of the reduction targets will be hard coal. In the light of the presented conditions resulting from the implementation of the eu climate and energy policy, which will affect the domestic demand for fossil fuels, the aim of the study is to analyse the supply-demand balance of hard coal used for energy purposes in Poland in the horizon of 2040.

The implementation of this goal requires a series of partial works, which are reflected in the study’s plan. the first chapter analyzes the domestic supply of hard coal. The production capacities of domestic mines were assessed in the light of the concessions currently in force and the extraction of coal for energy purposes was characterised. The applicable legal regulations were also analysed in the context of decisions regarding the closure of hard coal mines. The second chapter analyses steam coal imports. In the third chapter, scenarios of demand for hard coal are presented. The forecasts of the demand-supply balance are presented in chapter four. chapter five analyses and compares the prices of hard coal mined in domestic mines and imported coal. The summary includes the most important conclusions and recommendations. This study is a starting point for assessing the supply of hard coal in the context of the social agreement signed by the government as a result of consent between the inter-union Protest and strike committee and the government delegation on the principles and pace of the transformation of the mining sec- tor from september 2020 and regulating the principles of gradual liquidation of the hard coal mining industry (hereinafter: the agreement).

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